Howe or Nagelsmann: what I would check before United call either
Manchester United lost 2-0 at Chelsea on Saturday. That is one league win in nine, seven points, and no league win since 30 August. Bookmakers now make Michael Carrick 1/5 to be the next Premier League manager sacked.
The two names most reported for his job, Eddie Howe and Julian Nagelsmann, are both out of work. Howe stepped down at Newcastle at the end of July to take a break. Nagelsmann left Germany in July after their World Cup exit, and Jürgen Klopp replaced him. And yet, after the 3-0 home defeat by Bournemouth a week earlier, United's board reportedly kept Carrick because its leaders could not agree on who should follow him.
Appointing the head coach is the biggest decision a sporting director makes. This is how I would make this one.
The main measure here is chance difference: the quality of the chances a team creates minus the quality of the chances it allows, per league game. It uses non-penalty xG (expected goals: how many goals a chance is worth on average, based on thousands of similar shots). Over a season it tells you more about how good a team is than points do, because points swing on finishing and goalkeeping. All data is from Understat for league games, and from Transfermarkt for transfer fees.
1. How United got here
Carrick took over in January. In his 17 league games to May, United took 39 points, 2.29 a game. That is faster than champions Arsenal managed over the whole season (2.24). The chances they created and allowed were worth 28.7 points. United were 10 points ahead of their chances, and on 22 May the club made Carrick permanent until June 2028.
This season it has swung the other way: 7 points from chances worth 10.8. Some of the slump is bad luck. Most of it is not. United's chance difference has fallen from +0.58 a game in spring, a top-three level last season, to -0.14 this season, 13th in the league.
Put his 26 games together and United are +0.33 a game, which would have ranked fifth last season. So the question for the board is not "is Carrick a disaster?". It is "is the replacement clearly better than a fifth-best side whose chances are getting worse, and is he worth the cost of changing?"
2. Howe: a rebuild that was bought, then faded
When Howe arrived in November 2021, Newcastle were 19th with no wins in 11 games. In the 38 league games before him their chance difference was -0.55 a game, relegation level. They finished 11th, and in his first full season they were fourth with +0.90 a game. He later won the League Cup in 2025, Newcastle's first major trophy in 70 years, and qualified for the Champions League twice.
Two things change how I read that.
First, it was bought. Newcastle spent €109m in his first January (Bruno Guimarães, Chris Wood, Dan Burn, Kieran Trippier) and €175m net the season after. That is €284m in 18 months to go from relegation level to the top four.
Second, it faded. Since that peak, Newcastle's chance difference has fallen every season: +0.50, +0.38, then +0.07 last season, when they finished 12th with 49 points, his worst full season. There are real reasons: Champions League football in two of those seasons, injuries, and the sale of Alexander Isak to Liverpool in 2025. But +0.07 is the most recent evidence of what a Howe team looks like, and it is below Carrick's United over his 26 games.
3. Nagelsmann: the improvement at Hoffenheim, without money
When Nagelsmann took over Hoffenheim in February 2016, aged 28, they were 17th, seven points from safety, with a chance difference of -0.48 in the 34 league games before him. They stayed up in 15th. Then they finished fourth and third, the best finishes in the club's history, and his third full season was his best on chances at +0.78 a game (they finished ninth that year; results ran behind the chances).
The other two clubs need honest caveats. At RB Leipzig the rise was small, from +0.82 to +1.07 and +0.96, which is within the normal ups and downs of a season. At Bayern it jumped from +0.93 to +1.74, but from an already elite base, and Bayern's points per game barely moved. He won the league in his first season and was sacked in March 2023, second in the table and a point behind Dortmund. Then Germany went out of the 2026 World Cup in the round of 32.
Hoffenheim is the spell that matters for United, because it is the one that looks like United's problem: a struggling squad and no room to spend its way out.
4. What the improvement cost
Across nine transfer windows under Howe, Newcastle spent €477m more on fees than they received. Across Nagelsmann's three full seasons at Hoffenheim, they received €15m more than they spent. Bayern (€76m) and Leipzig (€47m) spent modestly by their standards.
That is not a judgement on Howe. The owners decided to spend, and he used the money well in the first 18 months. But a coach whose best season came after €284m of signings is a different hire from one who improved a team while it sold its best players to Bayern.
The cost of changing coach is small by comparison, but it is not zero. Carrick's contract runs to June 2028, and paying him off has been reported at £7.2m to £8.8m. The Telegraph reported this week that United would owe Newcastle about £3m if they appoint Howe, under a clause in his exit agreement (down from £6m reported earlier in the week), plus a smaller payment if he brings his coaching staff. Nagelsmann has no club to compensate.
5. What I would do as a sporting director
Agree the successor before you sack. Both candidates are free, and neither needs a club's permission. If the board cannot agree, the problem is the process, not the shortlist. Sacking first and searching second means more games under an interim coach in a season that is already slipping.
Judge on chances, not the run. United made Carrick permanent on 17 games that ran 10 points ahead of the chances. The same mistake in reverse would be to judge him only on nine games that have run four points behind. The real case against him is the fall in chance difference, not the points.
Ask what the improvement cost. Before hiring a coach for a great season, find out what was spent around it, and whether your club can spend the same. A coach who needs €284m to make the jump needs an owner willing to fund it.
Check the trend at his last club, not the peak. Newcastle's numbers fell for three seasons in a row under Howe. Nagelsmann's best work was six years ago. Both need explaining in the interview, with the data on the table.
My call: I would phone Nagelsmann first. He has improved a struggling club without money, which is the job United have, he costs nothing to bring in, and his weak points (no Premier League experience, a short Bayern spell, a poor World Cup) are ones you can test in an interview. Howe is the safer name. I am not sure he is the better hire.
Howe or Nagelsmann? Tell me on Instagram.
Data: Understat, Premier League and Bundesliga league games to 31 October 2026. Chance difference = non-penalty expected goals for minus against, per game. Expected points = Understat's average points from simulating each game's chances. Transfer fees from Transfermarkt, in euros, fees only. Reports: ESPN and Sky Sports (Chelsea 2-0 United), Oddschecker (sacking odds, board decision), Newcastle United (Howe's exit), Bundesliga.com (Klopp appointed), The Telegraph via Yahoo Sports (Howe compensation). Cover photo: Old Trafford, Stacey MacNaught, CC BY 2.0.