Can Brighton win the Premier League? What their chances say after nine games
After nine games of the 2015-16 season, Leicester were fifth in the Premier League, five points off the top. They won the league.
After nine games of this season, Brighton are third, five points behind Arsenal, with the best goal difference in the division. On Saturday they won 1-0 at the Etihad. So the question is fair: can Brighton actually win the Premier League?
The table says it is possible
Five points after nine games is not a big gap. Since 2010-11, four of the sixteen champions were five points or more behind at this stage: Manchester United in 2010-11, Manchester City in 2013-14 and 2020-21, and Leicester in 2015-16. Six of the sixteen were third or lower. On the table alone, Brighton are exactly where a surprise champion would be.
So I looked at what the table cannot show: the chances behind the results, using expected goals (Opta's measure of how likely each shot was to go in, from where and how it was taken).
The attack is title-level
Brighton have created 35 big chances (chances a player would be expected to score) in nine games, level with Manchester City for the most in the league. Their expected goals, 17.2, are second only to City's 18.3. On the chances they create, Brighton look like a team that belongs at the top.